Meet Bill Kramer – the Election Expert with MultiState

[00:00:12] Welcome back to another episode of Political Life. Today we come to you with not one but two people from multi-state. That's how many people it takes. Maggie couldn't handle me on her own, so she brought some reinforcements. She brought an election expert, Bill Kramer. Some of you, if you follow elections and our clients follow multi-state, you probably know Bill. He is kind of the go-to person on elections.

[00:00:38] And we wanted to have him on to do a deep dive at state level and find out what's going on and what his thoughts are. And so, Bill, welcome to the podcast.

[00:00:52] Great. Thanks for having me, Jim.

[00:00:54] Yeah. And Maggie, of course, welcome.

[00:00:57] Hello, Jim. Hi, Bill. Thanks for joining us.

[00:01:03] And so, Bill, tell us. Tell us about the election. And as you look at it from the 10,000-foot level, what are your thoughts?

[00:01:15] Yeah. So, obviously, everybody is paying a lot of attention to the White House and Congress and kind of the earthquake election that happened there for the GOP as far as Republicans winning control of Congress as well as the White House.

[00:01:33] You know, I think most people expect that type of thing to trickle down to the state level.

[00:01:39] And for the most part, you know, it really didn't. What we saw at the state level was more of a status quo election.

[00:01:46] So, one thing to say out front about why that might be is that currently at the state level, the Republicans, pretty much since 2010 in that midterm election, have dominated the states as far as state control.

[00:02:01] Right now, they have complete control over 23 states. And part of that is, you know, the fact that right now there's been kind of historic level of one-party control on both sides.

[00:02:17] So, Republicans control more states, but Democrats also control about 15 or 17 states.

[00:02:24] In total, 40 of the 50 states are controlled by one party, where one party controls the governor's mansion and both chambers are for the legislature.

[00:02:34] So, that really sets things up for why the states are a little bit different than maybe Congress, what you're seeing on a more closer election at the White House.

[00:02:46] And I'm sorry, how many states have one-party control?

[00:02:51] 40.

[00:02:52] Wow. That's incredible.

[00:02:55] That is incredible.

[00:02:56] Yeah, there's only 10 states that are divided.

[00:02:59] One party doesn't have an easy avenue to pass their policy preferences.

[00:03:05] We did have a couple of trifectas broken up in November.

[00:03:10] Michigan, I'm thinking.

[00:03:12] So, that is the big takeaway from, you know, this election.

[00:03:17] The GOP was largely on defense in the states, but they also played a little bit of offense this cycle,

[00:03:23] and they're able to break up the majorities that Democrats had recently gained in Minnesota and Michigan.

[00:03:31] In Michigan, they won the House outright.

[00:03:34] And currently in Minnesota, they tied the House, which, while it doesn't give them a majority,

[00:03:41] it does technically break up the track vectors that Democrats had over the last two years in Minnesota.

[00:03:47] So, Jim, you're going to have a power-sharing agreement between the Speaker and the minority leader come January.

[00:03:56] Incredible.

[00:03:57] That will make for an efficient government.

[00:04:02] Correct.

[00:04:02] Well, there are situations where they're not quite sure how it's going to work.

[00:04:06] Yeah.

[00:04:07] Well, you'll get compromised government.

[00:04:08] That's for sure.

[00:04:11] And so, and what about, you know, very often on this podcast, we have people at the state level.

[00:04:19] I'm thinking of Colorado, where there's a number of ballot initiatives.

[00:04:22] What have you seen in regards to ballot initiatives across the country?

[00:04:28] Yeah.

[00:04:29] So, the big ballot initiative fight trend this year was over reproductive rights, unsurprisingly.

[00:04:37] And while supporters of reproductive rights have been pretty much undefeated in the ballot in the last couple of cycles post-Dobbs,

[00:04:46] they were unsuccessful in Florida, where a 60% supermajority of voters need to approve a constitutional amendment.

[00:04:56] And they fell just short of that, I think around 56%, 57%.

[00:05:02] So, that is a big trend.

[00:05:04] And one thing that I was pretty surprised about was in California, the voters rejected a $20 an hour minimum wage increase,

[00:05:14] which as far as I've been following these things, it was the first time I'd ever seen voters just outright reject a minimum wage increase.

[00:05:24] So, that was notable.

[00:05:25] And then the other thing that was kind of a trend this year was rent choice voting, which didn't have a great year.

[00:05:34] It barely survived in Alaska, but it fell every other state that was on the ballot, except for D.C.

[00:05:42] and the District of Columbia, we might have rent choice voting going forward.

[00:05:46] And why do you think that is, Bill?

[00:05:50] I think for rent choice voting in particular is because it's really confusing to explain.

[00:05:55] I think I understand it fairly well.

[00:05:57] And even when I actually explain it, it's a little bit complicated.

[00:06:02] And because of that, I think it's a little confusing to voters.

[00:06:07] Yeah.

[00:06:08] But I think voters...

[00:06:12] Sorry, go ahead.

[00:06:13] Because voters are usually hesitant to make change happen, particularly when it comes to the voting process in particular.

[00:06:25] In Oregon, we saw an interesting ballot initiative that had the interest of a lot of clients in the private sector.

[00:06:32] You want to walk through that ballot initiative and if you expect to see it in the next cycle?

[00:06:39] Yeah.

[00:06:40] No, it's one that a lot of people were watching.

[00:06:44] And it was...

[00:06:46] I'll put on my tax policy hat.

[00:06:49] No offense to all of my colleagues at Malte State.

[00:06:51] They're much more knowledgeable in tax than I am.

[00:06:54] But essentially, what it would have done is it would have put additional taxes on large companies in the state.

[00:07:02] And then taken that tax revenue and essentially done a UBI, like a universal benefits to the universal income to the citizens of the state.

[00:07:18] It's actually analogous to what Alaska does with a permanent fund, except that's taking oil revenue, oil and gas revenue, and then distributing it out equally to the citizens of the state.

[00:07:31] So they're trying to do something like that.

[00:07:33] But the fear was that it would run a lot of the large companies out of the state.

[00:07:40] So the Democratic governor and a lot of the Democratic leaders that might have been sympathetic to a ballot measure like this actually came out against it.

[00:07:52] It was pretty soundly defeated.

[00:07:56] And as we kind of gear up for the next cycle of gubernatorial races, obviously climbing towards the 26, we're going to see dozens or more than a dozen on the ballot.

[00:08:08] But in terms of like Democrats trying to assess, you know, candidates that can fit a perhaps different mold, I think about Josh Stein being successful in North Carolina.

[00:08:20] Do you think that as gubernatorial candidates are being lined up for 25 and 26, that you'll start to see, you know, a different type of candidate emerging from the Democratic side?

[00:08:31] Or what do you think in terms of kind of those executive candidates will see next cycle?

[00:08:39] You know, it's a good question.

[00:08:41] You know, this cycle, 2024, was a pretty relatively sleepy cycle for gubernatorial races.

[00:08:48] There's only, I believe, 11.

[00:08:50] And the incumbent party won every single race.

[00:08:54] The only competitive race was actually in New Hampshire, where Governor Sununu, the Republican incumbent, was retiring.

[00:09:02] And the Republican candidate was able to win that one.

[00:09:07] But it wasn't particularly exciting gubernatorial cycle.

[00:09:10] As you said, in two years, we're going to have 36 governors up for re-election or election for open seats.

[00:09:16] So it's going to be a much more interesting cycle when it comes to governor's races.

[00:09:23] And to your question about, you know, recruiting and what type of hand that runs for governor,

[00:09:30] I would say that that's actually one of the few places anymore that we actually see success where Democrats can win in red states and Republicans can win in blue states.

[00:09:45] You know, we recently had moderate Republican governors in Maryland and Massachusetts.

[00:09:52] Sununu in New Hampshire was a very moderate Republican governor in a blue, purple, red-ish state, depending on the election cycle.

[00:10:01] And then one really interesting one for this cycle is actually Vermont.

[00:10:07] Vermont, their governor runs every two years.

[00:10:10] And Governor Scott is arguably the most popular governor in the nation.

[00:10:16] And he's a moderate Republican running in a pretty blue state.

[00:10:21] And in fact, on his coattails for re-election this year, the state that we saw in the legislature with the largest shift from one party to the other was actually in Vermont,

[00:10:32] where I believe the Republicans doubled their numbers in the Senate, broke up two majorities in both the House and the Senate in Vermont.

[00:10:43] And, you know, they didn't capture majorities because it's a very blue state, but really shifted the percentage of seats in that state more than any other state that we saw this legislative cycle in the states.

[00:10:59] One last question, Jim.

[00:11:28] You know, inform how people should think about, you know, 25 and 26?

[00:11:36] Yeah, supermajorities are very important.

[00:11:40] You know, when it's a very red state or a very blue state and you have a supermajority, it's helpful.

[00:11:46] But it's even more important if you're one of those few states that have a legislature of one party and a governor of another party.

[00:11:56] So currently, that's the case in Vermont, in Kentucky, in Kansas and North Carolina.

[00:12:05] And in North Carolina, the Democrats were able to break up the Republican supermajority.

[00:12:13] So the incoming Democratic governor will have a slightly easier time than the current governor, who had to deal with his veto being overridden constantly.

[00:12:23] And in Kansas, it was really important that the Republicans actually held on to their very slim supermajorities in that state, which allows them to continue overriding the vetoes of the Democratic governor in Kansas.

[00:12:38] I already mentioned that in Vermont, the Republicans have broken up the supermajorities, which will give their governor a little bit of an easier time to veto legislation its next coming cycle.

[00:12:56] Incidentally, like you said, there was a handful of supermajorities broken up or gained on both sides.

[00:13:04] I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I do know that the number of states with a supermajority for Republicans and Democrats currently is going to be the same number, total number, as it will be next year, even though the individual states have shifted a bit.

[00:13:21] And that was just kind of a luck of the numbers there, that the net numbers end up being the same.

[00:13:30] Bill, was there any surprises to you this election season?

[00:13:37] No big surprises.

[00:13:39] I think early on, if I was going to say a surprise, it would be that I think we all thought that the North Carolina gubernatorial governor's race would be the closest watched.

[00:13:48] And after a series of scandals, it ended up not being the case.

[00:13:52] So that was an early on surprise.

[00:13:54] As far as election night, I think that the biggest surprise in the state might have been that shift in Vermont, how well the Republicans did in that state in Vermont.

[00:14:06] Otherwise, I think the other driver that we saw had to do with redistricting and new maps.

[00:14:13] So we saw a decent shift for Democrats in the state of Montana, and that's because it was the first time they used new maps drawn by an independent redistricting commission in that state, the bipartisan commission.

[00:14:27] And then the other new map state that everybody had to do with Wisconsin.

[00:14:31] So they were running new maps because this last election cycle previously, the Democrats were able to gain a liberal majority on the state Supreme Court.

[00:14:42] So when they challenged the GOP-drawn districts, which were heavy gerrymandered towards Republicans, the Supreme Court threw those maps out and forced the legislature to redraw fairer maps.

[00:14:57] So for the first time in a decade or two, the assembly was actually up for grabs in Wisconsin.

[00:15:06] The GOP was able to hold on to their majorities, but they lost a good amount of seats.

[00:15:11] And they also lost a good amount of seats in the Senate in Wisconsin.

[00:15:15] However, that was never really in question because of the fact that only half the Senate seats were up for election.

[00:15:20] So, you know, while the GOP held on to their majorities in that state, looking at the next election cycle, that will be firmly in the crosshairs of Democrats.

[00:15:32] Mm hmm.

[00:15:36] Mm hmm.

[00:15:37] Heading into 2025, I want to talk about some of the legislative trends that you're watching and also some of our team put together that recap of 24 and forecast for 25.

[00:15:47] But first have to talk about the legislative leadership elections that are currently underway.

[00:15:53] You've got Texas that's electing a new speaker today or tomorrow, and we've seen a slew of new leaders elected the past few weeks.

[00:16:02] One thing I've I've kind of reflected on is that, you know, in New York, you've seen kind of the progressives take the House leadership, etc.

[00:16:11] And what I've noted from this last cycle is that some of the Western states, the Freedom Caucus is really starting to emerge, getting more seats in the chambers and then in turn electing legislative leaders from kind of the Freedom Caucus wing.

[00:16:27] Just in terms of any other leadership trends that you see across the state's bill.

[00:16:35] You know, I'm just always so surprised that back in the day you'd have Senate presidents and speakers who'd be in that position for 20 to 30 years.

[00:16:42] And now it seems like they're cycling out every, you know, eight to 10 years, which really changes a lot in in the course of any session.

[00:16:54] Yeah, Maggie, as you know, the legislative leadership in the legislature is a reflection of the membership.

[00:17:02] And I think what we've seen in the legislative elections is that even though the numbers, you know, the amount of chambers that flipped hasn't been significant over the last couple of cycles.

[00:17:18] What we have seen is that particularly in primaries, you see a lot of incumbents losing primaries.

[00:17:25] You see the red states getting redder and the blue states getting bluer.

[00:17:31] I mean, for example, you know, just talking to the lobbyists recently, I know that in New Mexico, there wasn't much of a shift as far as Democrats and Republicans in the legislature.

[00:17:41] But post primaries and open seats, we saw a lot more far left members in that legislature.

[00:17:50] So it's a blue state getting bluer. And in a state like Idaho, you see, you know, a very red state with, you know, I believe you might know this, Maggie, but because you're better with keeping up the leadership.

[00:18:02] But I believe they're one of their leaders in their legislature lost a primary.

[00:18:07] And I know from talking to lobbyists, that state has gotten much more conservative than it was, even though it started out as a very conservative state.

[00:18:15] So I think you see a little bit of that across the states, which feeds into this whole 41 party control.

[00:18:24] And then each year that that one party control is getting a little bit more is a political extreme.

[00:18:30] It's not in every state, but it's definitely if I was going to look at it as a largest trend.

[00:18:36] That is a big factor in all of this.

[00:18:38] Absolutely. And I think that with the Freedom Caucus and even the progressive caucuses around the country, sometimes it's hard to predict what they're going to pick to work on.

[00:18:48] I think that the further you get outside these, you know, middle of the road leaders who are pragmatists and compromisers by nature,

[00:18:59] it's a little bit hard to predict what they're going to take in terms of their legislative priorities and how they're going to feel about some of the issues that have been percolating around the states.

[00:19:10] So speaking of issues, what do you think are going to be the top three dominant issues come 2025 in the states?

[00:19:23] Yeah, no.

[00:19:25] As you know, Maggie, we have a team of analysts that every year read through the, and I was just crunching these numbers,

[00:19:33] about 250,000 bills introduced in the state legislatures every cycle or every legislative session.

[00:19:42] And what we do every year before a new session starts is we poll those analysts that kind of read every bill

[00:19:49] and are getting the front line view of this on what they think the top issues will be.

[00:19:57] And like each one has a little bit of an issue focus, so they're able to pull out from each big area what they think,

[00:20:05] but also they have a broader focus on what they see their colleagues working on.

[00:20:10] And no surprise, by far, the number one issue is AI, so artificial intelligence.

[00:20:16] And I would just focus that, I would just say that, you know, there are a lot of other tech issues that get caught up with that,

[00:20:23] which I think are kind of like some of the sub-issues.

[00:20:26] So AI is the headline, but AI is kind of built off of data privacy, and those laws have been enacted over the last couple of sessions,

[00:20:35] you know, comprehensive data privacy laws.

[00:20:39] And then you're kind of getting into this privacy aspect of particularly children's privacy online.

[00:20:47] The social media tools are being used.

[00:20:51] Age verification bills were really popular this year, even though they're getting batted down by the courts.

[00:20:56] And I think the big trend that we saw towards the end of session this year was, you know, phones in schools was another big one that's all going to wrap up into this tech.

[00:21:08] And it's a bipartisan effort.

[00:21:11] I think a lot of this tech-focused legislation, you know, two parties might be coming at it from slightly different perspectives,

[00:21:16] but they're both very concerned.

[00:21:19] They see AI, they see gatefakes.

[00:21:21] These are pretty tangible things that they can see, and they're starting to act to it.

[00:21:27] They're still trying to figure out what they want to do.

[00:21:31] But it's very apparent that they want to act on these issues.

[00:21:34] So I would say that was my number one, AI and tech policy in general.

[00:21:42] Does that check in with Connecticut?

[00:21:44] Oh, yeah.

[00:21:45] Yeah, yeah.

[00:21:47] Yep.

[00:21:47] I would say he hit the nail right on the head.

[00:21:51] Yeah.

[00:21:52] I would say another one that kind of feeds off of that and is kind of driven by it.

[00:21:58] And I've been talking about this in the context of data centers.

[00:22:03] So a lot of AI, crypto, all of this type of stuff is feeding demand for data centers.

[00:22:11] And, you know, here in D.C., we're in the backyard of the world's largest data center concentration in Northern Virginia.

[00:22:20] And, you know, at first, I think a lot of the data center stuff was, especially from the state lawmakers' point of view,

[00:22:26] like let's bring in, let's incentivize tax break, let's incentivize data centers because it's going to bring in jobs.

[00:22:32] I think what they learned is it does bring in jobs, but they're construction jobs.

[00:22:36] It doesn't take a ton of people to run these things, but it does take a lot of people to build them.

[00:22:41] Right now, we're kind of at a huge building spree on data centers.

[00:22:46] And I think that kind of nicely ties together a bunch of really interesting policy points of view.

[00:22:52] There's the very direct, like how do we get enough energy generation to feed these data centers?

[00:23:00] Also tied to that is how do we get the energy to them?

[00:23:03] So transmission, I think it's one of the reasons you see them start to build these data centers as close to an energy generating facility as they can.

[00:23:13] And then there's environmental issues, water.

[00:23:16] You put these into an area where there's not a lot of water available.

[00:23:20] They use a lot of water.

[00:23:22] And now you're starting to see this kind of backlash, particularly in my backyard.

[00:23:26] And I think that's really important.

[00:23:28] What is considered the NIMBY effect of, you know, I don't want this box looking kind of noisy data center too close to my community.

[00:23:40] So you're starting to see some local rejection of that.

[00:23:43] And then, you know, the jobs aspect.

[00:23:45] We're in a different economy than we were coming out of the greater recession.

[00:23:49] And job creation is a little bit different in this economy than it was, even if we're focusing on temporary construction jobs.

[00:23:59] So I don't have a great way of talking about it, but I do think data centers and the policy issues surrounding them are something to keep an eye on.

[00:24:08] And it feeds right into the AI phenomenon.

[00:24:12] Well, Bill, and you're correct.

[00:24:14] The debate and the focus of legislators has changed.

[00:24:19] Just as you said, there was initially a kind of a race to see who could get the data centers.

[00:24:25] And then there's been a bit of a pause like, well, wait.

[00:24:29] After they're built, all the construction jobs are gone.

[00:24:32] And for states that are already running up against, you know, needing more energy generation, these data centers are huge energy users, enormous energy users.

[00:24:49] And so just as you summarized, they're thinking about all those points.

[00:24:55] And now it appears as if there's a bit of a pause.

[00:24:59] You know, do we need to have the data centers in our state to, you know, because initially I think there was a lot of thought.

[00:25:07] You want to be on the cutting edge of tech and AI and everything.

[00:25:11] So let's bring the data centers in.

[00:25:12] And then they realize, well, wait, maybe we don't really need the data centers in our state to be on the cutting edge of AI.

[00:25:20] But there's also, you know, so there's more pros and cons than I think they initially thought.

[00:25:25] Sorry, Maggie, go ahead.

[00:25:26] Just seeing nuclear come online in terms of the generation piece.

[00:25:29] I mean, it's just incredible.

[00:25:31] The Three Mile Island deal.

[00:25:32] Yeah, just an incredible circular question around this entire policy.

[00:25:39] Yeah, there's a nuclear power plant.

[00:25:42] Sorry, go ahead, Bill.

[00:25:44] No, I was just saying that I think one of my pieces on data centers kind of, you know, I think a lot of the enviros are anti-data centers for the energy use.

[00:25:54] But I do think there might be a silver lining for the environment in the data center drive that actually spurs more nuclear, more, you know, kind of regulatory regulatory to allow more nuclear, which I think in the whole would provide more clean energy.

[00:26:12] Yeah, you can argue about that.

[00:26:14] This is civics, but there is potentially a silver lining there.

[00:26:18] Yeah, very, very, very interesting and great overview because you're you are exactly right.

[00:26:26] It is a it is a evolving debate on that topic and will continue.

[00:26:34] So, Bill, I don't know if you do any traveling, but Maggie usually wraps up with a couple of questions about people's travels.

[00:26:40] And so, Maggie, you want to close us out?

[00:26:45] Sure.

[00:26:45] Well, Bill and I were just on the road together, so I'll actually let him share where we were with our first question.

[00:26:52] Bill, where were you last and what was the best meal that you had and where are you headed to next?

[00:26:57] Oh, someone wants to connect with you via LinkedIn and make a friend.

[00:27:02] They can give you a restaurant tip on for your next trip.

[00:27:07] Right.

[00:27:07] Well, we were just in New Orleans together.

[00:27:12] A fantastic place to visit and have a conference.

[00:27:17] Actually, the best meal I probably had was the steak that we had that first night at was a Brennan's.

[00:27:24] Yep.

[00:27:25] Classic place.

[00:27:27] Indeed.

[00:27:28] We had the steak.

[00:27:29] And I think we both had the espresso martini, which was a good thing to keep energy going in New Orleans.

[00:27:41] And then my next trip was actually.

[00:27:44] Exactly.

[00:27:45] My next trip, I'm actually leaving for New York City tomorrow.

[00:27:49] And as much as I love New York, I would love to get some eating recommendations because there's just so much.

[00:27:56] So that is my next trip in New York City.

[00:28:00] Infrequently visited place, I know, but always happy to have recommendations there.

[00:28:07] An endless menu of options up there.

[00:28:09] And Bill and or Maggie, what was the conference in New Orleans?

[00:28:15] CSG National Conference, my alma mater.

[00:28:19] Ah, wow.

[00:28:20] Bill spoke on PFAS.

[00:28:22] We were able to partner with CSG on a couple of sessions.

[00:28:25] And yeah, he did a great job giving a 50-state overview of what's happening with that policy topic.

[00:28:32] Wow.

[00:28:33] Boy.

[00:28:35] And your home state, Deputy Speaker Kevin Ryan is the National Chair of CSG.

[00:28:41] That was his choice to go to New Orleans.

[00:28:43] So we recognize his leadership and absolutely adore him.

[00:28:47] And was there also the Rodell Foundation having a conference down there for legislators?

[00:28:53] Was that part of the CSG?

[00:28:55] They were.

[00:28:56] Cindy Abrams, a State Representative Judiciary Chair from Ohio, who also is the Co-Chair of Shared State Legislation.

[00:29:03] She was batting both conferences or doing that fellowship while the conference was going on.

[00:29:10] So yes, that was happening.

[00:29:12] And then there's a new Hispanic Caucus group that was meeting in conjunction with CSG.

[00:29:20] And Ashby was holding a meeting right after the meeting.

[00:29:24] So there were like lots of meetings that I think were kind of using CSG as the anchor.

[00:29:29] And then, you know, capturing lawmakers that were already in town for other reasons.

[00:29:34] So.

[00:29:34] Got it.

[00:29:35] Got it.

[00:29:38] Smart on their part and makes it easier for people like you.

[00:29:41] Absolutely.

[00:29:43] We're seeing it at the ranch.

[00:29:46] Yeah.

[00:29:47] I was going to say, I'm sure it didn't hurt that New Orleans weather is much better than most places in December.

[00:29:57] Fact.

[00:29:57] Fact.

[00:29:58] Well, Bill, thank you for joining us.

[00:30:01] We really appreciate it.

[00:30:03] And Maggie, always great to chat with you.

[00:30:06] And to our listeners, have a great week.

[00:30:08] And we will see you next Monday.

[00:30:10] Bye.

[00:30:11] Bye.